For mobile phone manufacturers, every ten years of communication technology iterations is behind a new cycle of rejuvenation in the industry itself, but be wary of the industry’s big wash brand. No one wants to see the phenomenon of only one of the “China Cool Alliance” reappearing, and the phenomenon of rapid adjustment of the business of the four major head manufacturers this year.
Huawei’s performance in the domestic market has undoubtedly brought tremendous pressure on the other three headphone manufacturers Especially in the case that the domestic market has continued to decline.
Analytical organizationCanalys statistics show that in the second quarter of 2019, the Chinese smartphone market has been continuously ranked according to shipments. In the nine quarters, the last time to maintain growth is still in the first quarter of 2017.
In an interview recently,Hu Baishan, executive vice president of vivo, also bluntly said that this year’s Q3 “will be a relatively low point in history.” Behind this is the change of the tide, and the overseas environment changes, Huawei launched a storm in the Chinese market and triggered the domino effect.
This year, OV two large factories have successively released new products to make up the shortcomings of the products, and set off a new one-machine naval battle. In contrast, Xiaomi, its red rice from After independence, it has become a more active brand, and the newly released 10,000-yuan price concept machine of the main brand is even more gimmick than reality.
Canalys analyst Jia Mo said that under the influence of the unstable environment in overseas markets, we can see the strategies of Chinese head manufacturers in the local and overseas markets. The competitive situation is undergoing dramatic changes, which will affect the accumulation of funds in the 4G-<5>5G transition period and the promotion of other overseas markets. The resulting market impact will be relatively long-term.
“Besides the pressure brought by Huawei, other head manufacturers have a greater challenge this year. There may be new opportunities next year, but only if this year is going to pass. He concludes this way.
Change the variables before the tide
5G phones look The publicity was very hot, and the sales data of “how many figures to break through” after the first launch were also published as “beautiful.” But in fact, this is probably just a speech war. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Miao Wei, has recently released As said, he is still using 4G mobile phones, and 5G applications are more for industrial Internet services.
The latest statistics from China Telecomtsu Institute show that in the first eight months of this year, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments reached 251 million, of which only 91,000 mobile phones were shipped. The proportion is only 0.11%.
It is not difficult to explain from the perspective of consumption habits: In the first year of 5G commercial use, mobile phones have been successively available, but the infrastructure is still in the process of improvement, 5G mobile phones The overall selling price did not reach the mid-end price level. The operator tariffs announced in succession show that many 5G packages are priced at 200 yuan / month, and apparently have not reached the level acceptable to the public.
This will cause 5G mobile phones not to become the actual driving factor this year, but what is embarrassing is that if you consider changing the machine this year, it seems that you can use 4G mobile phones. The time period will be passively shortened. This will inevitably affect the overall replacement needs.
Hu Baishan said,Even the flagship model X20 launched by vivo in 2017 is no problem even if it is used for another year. Because the demand for configuration of mobile phones for storage has gradually become popular since 6GB+128GB, the cycle of active replacement of consumers will inevitably lengthen.
Overall, the replacement cycle in the Chinese market is about 14-16 months in 2014, and the longest has reached 26 months, which means mobile phones. Demand for the broader market is declining.
Nuowei Consulting CEO Li Rui also observed this phenomenon, he told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, although in the past three years, the replacement cycle of the Chinese mobile phone market It has been extended, but in the second and third quarter of this year, the change cycle of medium and high-end models has been further lengthened, and to a certain extent, it is inseparable from the 5G.
Of course, this is mainly about the Android camp, the long-term use habits of “fruit powder”, and the relatively friendly price performance of the iPhone11.As a result, Apple has received the most evaluation of the “Zhenxiang” reversal after the release of the new product, and it has performed at the sales level.
If the biggest market variable since 2019, it is undoubtedly from Huawei. Unsurprisingly, according to the inherent development path, Huawei should be expanding its territory in the European market at a time, but some insiders said that due to changes in the external environment, Huawei’s sub-brand glory is currently in a state of stagnation overseas. . No new machines are released and no more marketing is available. “Glory many overseas personnel are retracing, so Huawei’s current challenges are also very clear, according to what he envisioned, how to get half of the Chinese market share.” Industry insiders said.
Since the middle of this year, Huawei’s official representatives have continued to show their faces at home and abroad, introducing corporate strategy and technological innovation, which has triggered emotional resonance to some extent.
Jia Mo revealed thatAlthough the official does not follow the “Chinese goods” label like the previous Xiaomi, but the size of the retailer represented by Gome is the subject of this, operating and harvesting market sentiment.
Of course, Huawei does have its strength. Regardless of its R&D strength and brand influence, Huawei has a stronger competitiveness than the other three head brands. Especially the underlying technology.
The effect is also obvious. The performance of the Q2 mobile phone market announced by many statistical agencies in the past 2019 shows that Huawei’s momentum in the Chinese market is so fierce that its shipments are already the sum of OPPO and vivo shipments ranked two or three, and even Huawei in China. The performance of the high-end machine market is very close to Apple.
“Canalys statistics found that Q2 Huawei’s total market share in China accounted for 38% of this year’s total market share, equivalent to one-third of the market being a manufacturer. Take it, this can almost be said to be a monopoly number.” Jia Mo analyzed.
Horizontally, starting in 2018, the market share of others outside the top five in the Chinese market is less than 10%. However, Huawei’s share of Q2 this year has increased by 10 percentage points, which shows that there must be a share of OV meters + Apple.
The resulting domino effect has affected the continued strategic adjustments of other head manufacturers in the Chinese market, as well as “finding” in overseas markets.
“The market continues to fall this year, and the competition can be said to be hot. With Huawei’s ‘opening’ in China, the next 2-5 will definitely be harder. But fortunately, overseas markets can alleviate certain pressures.” Li Rui said that compared with the global strategic development of different manufacturers, the pressure will be relatively small, but the pressure on the Chinese market has been particularly large.
OV’s machine-sea cooperation battle
On October 10th in Chengdu, OPPO Vice President Shen Yiren will have built the “charge…, call…” The slogan was changed to “Charge for 5 minutes, black for 2 hours / call for 6 hours” to launch the new Reno Ace series for mobile phone users.
This new series is equipped with a customized version of up to 40th anniversary. In addition to the regular cooperation with the eSports league, the first OPPO game handle has been released.
Its directionality is particularly clear. As a “green factory” that was called “factory machine” in the early stage of development, it hopes to make up its own share of the population in the “geek” field. This year’s new Reno series, which replaces the original R series, OPPO has also spent a lot of effort on the product system to adjust and adjust.
Although the high-end flagship Find X series has not released a new version this year, OPPO has released a lot of new products only this year. The regular flagship models Reno and Reno 2, in the first half of this year, added Reno Z series, as well as the aforementioned new Ace series.
The insiders said that OPPO has high hopes for the Reno series, but Reno and Ten launched in the second quarter. The two versions of the hybrid optical zoom did not meet expectations, so they further complemented the relatively low-end Reno Z product line, which is close to the performance of the two flagship series last year.
“There have been some internal adjustments, and now it seems to be in a relatively correct direction, and it is already in a good state. “Another person pointed out.
This has also caused the market to question whether “OPPO is slow”, plus the other three head manufacturers They are launching 5G mobile phones one after another.OPPO is not in a hurry, it seems even more so.
In this regard, the industry insiders generally believe that OPPO is not a technology behind, but takes into account the popularity and strategic priority.
Jia Mo pointed out that the current OPPO internal strategic priority is not the launch of 5G, but the new Reno series is stable and strong, which is also the largest with the current vivo different. “OPPO’s new series Reno needs to re-educate users, change the positioning of the original ‘trend’, and move toward ‘technical’, which will cover the crowd. So Reno has similar tactical performance, it is not to be lost, if the market is hot If it is weak, it will be pushed out.”
But OV currently lists the battlefield tactics. The goal is the same: to fill the market population who have missed or under-performed in the past, and fully enter the market competition.
A headman insider said that these successively launched product lines are actually based on the refined operation of the manufacturer’s mobile phone inventory market, and hope to cover the entire population as much as possible.
If OPPO redefines the core product system, it will repeatedly push the new Reno series to the public; vivo is based on the sub-brand, and has launched a “letter sequence” in the past year. U, S, Y, etc.
In this regard, Hu Baishan said that the biggest action of vivo at the product level this year is to launch the sub-brand iQOO, which is subdivided into two Product line. “We feel that this consumer group is more concerned with technology, such as parameters, performance and so on. The biggest feature of iQOO is that the first two models use water drop screens. Consumers’ requirements for screens are not so high, and the pursuit of performance will be higher. We invest in areas that consumers like, which is quite different from the NEX and X-series.
The same is true for other alphabet series. Hu Baishan pointed out that in the future, vivo will cover every product and every target consumer group. Of course, after the subdivision, the supporting capability requirements will be much higher, such as product development design and channel preparation. Etc.
“The overall difficulty will be greater than the original. But the mobile phone market is now in this state, Apple’s products are now also issued three times, this time Apple’s iPhone11 series products have been covered from the price segment. It shows that China is already a very mature market, and it is impossible to cover it with one model or one series. We want to use different things to set up and define different products so that we can better meet the needs. He said this.
Li Rui pointed out that the Z series of vivo, U and OPPO are all complementary to online channels; from the price level In addition, due to the higher price of OV’s flagship model last year, the price of products around 2000-2500 yuan was vacant, and it was quickly seized by Huawei’s Nova, so it needs a new product line to make up.
The balance of channel profit
After the product is laid, the same is important. However, when Huawei began to seek the advantages of OV’s offline market, the balance of profit and share became the core proposition that needs to be considered. Especially this year, OV has successively launched various relatively cost-effective product lines.
After many industry insiders confirmed that Huawei, which has increased its domestic market operations, some of its offline channels have been transferred from OV this year.
“Huawei has transferred some channels that are relatively difficult to survive in the OV system.” Li Rui pointed out that Huawei needs to increase its agency and retail channels when it comes to domestic coding. Release of production capacity and inventory. At the same time, Huawei’s P series this year has a good performance from the product level, which leads to positive acceptance of publicity and channels. Especially after the “6·18” promotion this year, Huawei’s sales terminal has performed very well.
Jia Mo said that OV’s offline channel agent adopts a hierarchical mode, and the top layer generally can get the total amount, so this part will not pursue a single The profit of the product can also be obtained by considerable share.
But it also means that the level of the backend is at a disadvantage. According to the usual single product split mode, the higher the price of the mobile phone, the higher the profit. Once the OV starts to have some offline cost-effective products, it is easy to dilute the revenue of the channel. It is not difficult to understand that under the attraction of Huawei’s high-priced products, it will attract some channels to join.
According to the data provided by Canalys, in the second quarter of this year, the average mobile phone sales price of vivo decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, while the other three head manufacturers Increased to varying degrees.
The average price of millet rose the most, reaching 37.6%.Secondly, the OPPO average price increased by 9.9%. However, it should be pointed out that Xiaomi is still the lowest average price among the four major manufacturers. In the second quarter, it was US$194 (the RMB was converted into US dollars according to the exchange rate at the time), even for the sharply falling vivo, the average price was still US$210. (ibid.).
“vivo dares to make more cost-effective products and series, intended to defend Huawei’s competition, and compete with Xiaomi in some aspects.” Jia Mo analyzed that this has There are more obvious performances. “For example, the U series of vivo is similar to the positioning of red rice. The online market with a price of less than 1,000 yuan is a part with less profit; the sub-brand iQOO is also a benchmark for Xiaomi Mi 9 , red rice K20, etc.”
But this may not mean that the vivo is in the “broken arm”. Jia Mo further analyzed that the profit of vivo at the low-end product line may be supplemented by software services. Especially in September, vivo announced the launch of payment services as a sign.
After releasing the NEX 3 high-end flagship series in September this year, vivo pay will also be launched. Since then, vivo has become the last top-paid payment service among the four head manufacturers. By. However, unlike other manufacturers, the vivo has shown a relatively important emphasis on this business.
“vivo is also pushing its own mobile service framework, and the launch of the payment business is a direct feedback on this strategy.” Jia Mo believes that vivo wants to borrow This makes up for the lack of hardware profits through the profit at the software level, which is a relatively obvious change of vivo versus OPPO.
Seeking for Xiaomi
The storm from Huawei and OV’s strategy adjustment is not difficult to see The inherent route of Xiaomi is facing challenges, especially when the red rice brand is in full swing.
This means that the competitors of the Red Rice series have expanded from the glory of the past to the OV camp, and then tested the response of Xiaomi.
The pace of release from the new machine can also be seen one or two. The realme preemptive millet system supported by the OPPO supply chain released a thousand yuan machine product supporting 64 million pixels; the vivo sub-brand iQOO was the first to launch a 5G new machine, and the basic price of the two was only 100 yuan.
“OV’s control of the supply chain is even worse than Xiaomi, because they are more domestic.” Jia Mo commented that OPPO’s supply chain also Supporting realme and one plus, the two brands that are mainly in overseas markets have also spent a lot of effort in the domestic market this year. Therefore, Xiaomi can’t cope with the sea tactics, it will be more likely to drag down the overall profit, and it is difficult to achieve “miracle effect” through large-scale advertising.
especially the current domestic supply chain system is highly consistent, whether it is a pop-up camera, under-screen opticalfingerprint >Technology, once launched, can quickly spread to very low prices, and manufacturers can not take advantage of the supply chain.
Li Rui also believes that the millet system is currently under pressure from both sides of the OV and will face greater challenges than ever before. Since the independence of red rice, the overall performance of red rice is even better than the parent brand Xiaomi. Fortunately, the millet system has withstood the pressure, and there is no obvious domestic share decline.
Jia Mo pointed out that what can be seen at present is that Xiaomi Online has made further efforts to expand its store and hopes to increase coverage at the channel level. However, the pressure on Xiaomi is still very large. “In the short term, even if there is no strategic mistake, Xiaomi will have a big breakthrough.”
The bigger opportunity lies in the overseas market. Although Xiaomi’s domestic share is at the end of the four major head manufacturers, shipments in the global market are still higher than OV, slightly worse than Apple.
In emerging markets India and Southeast Asia, Xiaomi’s products are competitive enough, especially in other European markets where other head manufacturers are not yet stable. Xiaomi has already taken the lead.
The strategic logic of Xiaomi is relatively clear. If you can win the market in Europe, especially in Western Europe, then the overall image of his brand will have a lot of room for improvement. This is what Huawei has done before. . It is also why Xiaomi is now putting the European market in the first place, not Southeast Asia. “Jia Mo pointed out.
For mobile phone manufacturers, every ten years of communication technology iterations, behind the industry itself is a new cycle of rejuvenation, but also Be wary of the reshuffle of the industry caused by this. No one wants to see the phenomenon that only one of the “China Cool Alliance” is reappearing.It was only after the rapid adjustment of the business of the four major head manufacturers this year.
A few insiders said with a smile, “If one day, there is really only one brand in this market, it is not fun.” In fact, the real meaning behind it is that, just because there is such a completely freely competitive mobile phone market, there is a product that can satisfy a variety of consumer segments. This market is not only colorful, but also a kind of technological advancement. Good to push.